As the Champions League returns for the second round of fixtures, here’s who the bookmakers’ suggest are the favourites to win.
Note: The probabilities are based on the bookmakers’ odds at time of writing.
Tottenham – 3%
Tottenham won the Europa League last season and are outsiders to win the Champions League this season.
Winning the secondary European cup wasn’t enough to keep Ange Postecoglou in his job, but the Thomas Frank era has started strong for Spurs. Under Frank, Tottenham look more defensively organised and composed on the ball without sacrificing their attacking threat.
In their first fixture, Spurs capitalised on a mistake by Villarreal goalkeeper Luiz Junior to secure a narrow 1-0 victory. They travel to Norway to face Bodø / Glimt in the second gameweek.
Spurs have never won the Champions League, although they did reach the final in 2019 before losing to Liverpool. They’re outsiders for a reason – but if there is one thing to expect from Spurs, it is the unexpected.
Inter Milan – 4%
Last season’s finalists, Inter were comprehensively beaten 5-0 by a strong PSG.
However, on their run to the final, Inter knocked out both Barcelona and Bayern Munich, as well as beating Arsenal in the group stage.
The spine of the Inter team has remained largely intact over the summer, although Cristian Chivu has replaced Simone Inzaghi in the dugouts.
Inter got off to a strong European start, with a 2-0 away victory over Ajax. With a favourable draw in the group stage, Inter should qualify for the knockouts without too much difficulty. With a strong defensive unit and the lethal partnership of Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez up top, Inter will be a hard team to face in the knockouts.
Chelsea – 5%
The champions of the world, but still an outsider for the Champions League.
Chelsea surprised everyone by beating PSG to claim Club World Cup glory over the summer. Their start to the Premier League has been a return to normality in terms of the inconsistency that has plagued the Chelsea team’s of recent years. 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the league isn’t the form of a team that will dominate Europe, but Chelsea have a knack for winning trophies.
A first gameweek defeat to Bayern means Chelsea will always be playing catch-up, but they should be strong enough to qualify for the knockouts.
If Cole Palmer is fit and firing, this Chelsea team could go far.
Manchester City – 8%
Pep’s City experienced Champions League success in 2023 with a 1-0 win over Inter Milan in the final.
Man City are a difficult team to predict this season. 2024/25 was a write off; knocked out of Europe in the knockout phase play-offs and out of the title race before Christmas.
City’s away game at Arsenal in the league has shown Guardiola is willing to compromise on his possession-based gameplan in order to eke out results – a tactical flexibility that will come of use during difficult knockout away games.
With Rodri back to full fitness, Haaland consistently finding the back of the net and Jérémy Doku hitting form, City could go all the way.
Bayern – 9%
Bayern fell short against Inter in the quarter-finals last season, but have strengthened well in the summer. Luis Díaz has started brightly, Tom Bischof has added energy into the midfield and Jonathan Tah is an experienced addition to the backline.
Harry Kane is the talisman whose goals could fire Bayern to a seventh Champions League trophy. Díaz, Gnabry and Olise provide the creativity needed to break down a disciplined defensive backline.
Question marks still linger over Vincent Kompany’s managerial expertise and lack of experience – especially in the latter stages of the knockouts.
Real Madrid – 10%
Before Saturday’s shock defeat to Atlético, Real were looking invincible. Previously unbeaten in La Liga, Real had fought back to beat Marseille at home in the first gameweek.
Real Madrid’s hopes centre on Kylian Mbappé, the best player in the world. Xabi Alonso’s 4-2-3-1 has given the Frenchman freedom while also creating room for Vinícius Júnior to flourish. The Brazilian initially struggled alongside Mbappé under Ancelotti, with both drawn to similar spaces, but the balance looks improved.
The next challenge is reintegrating Jude Bellingham. Against Atlético, his return to the central attacking midfield role disrupted the attacking harmony that Real had enjoyed with Arda Güler behind Mbappé.
If Alonso can find a way to integrate Bellingham without disrupting Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior, Madrid will be among the most dangerous sides in the competition.
PSG – 12%
Last season’s deserved winners were top of our 2025/26 Champions League Power Rankings, but are only joint favourites to retain their crown this season according to the bookmakers.
Donnarumma is the most notable transfer away from the Parc des Princes, but Lucas Chevalier has started well and introduces a new passing outlet from the back.
A 4-0 home victory over Atalanta shows PSG are keen to start where they left off last season. Injuries to Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Marquinhos have weakened PSG’s starting XI in the short-term. All are expected to return to action later in October, but will miss the tough away game against Barcelona.
A weaker domestic league has always provided PSG with the opportunity to rotate their squad and keep them fresh later in the knockouts, which always provides an upper hand.
Arsenal – 12%
Arsenal have never won the Champions League – something rival fans like to regularly point out – but this season could be their best chance.
Saliba and Gabriel form one of the most formidable centre-back partnerships in recent history, and with Viktor Gyökeres up top Arsenal finally have the firepower they have been lacking in recent years.
An intensive domestic calendar will always test Premier League team’s squad depth, but Arsenal have invested smartly in players such as Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze who can cover multiple positions at a high level.
Arsenal and Arteta’s lack of European pedigree will always serve against them in terms of being favourites to go the whole way, but this season they have both the elite starting eleven and depth required to win the Champions League.
Barcelona – 12%
Barcelona look strong – even with Lamine Yamal injured. A quick brace from Marcus Rashford was enough to secure victory for Barcelona against a resolute Newcastle in the first gameweek.
Hansi Flick’s attacking philosophy will ensure every game is a delight to watch for the neutral; but cost Barca in last season’s competition as Inter hit 7 past them across two legs. However, if the league is anything to go by, their defence has improved significantly. Joan García looks a solid addition between the sticks, although he is currently sidelined with an injury suffered against Oviedo.
With Yamal on the hunt for the Ballon d’Or, a Champions League victory will stand him in good stead.
Liverpool – 12%
Liverpool have lost twice this season, both times against Crystal Palace. As long as Oliver Glasner doesn’t take over a Champions League rival, Liverpool look among the favourites to win Europe’s top prize.
Mohamed Salah’s goalscoring looks to be returning to more human-like levels, but Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike will provide the firepower to make up for it. The new full-back pairing of Milos Kerkez and Jeremie Frimpong hasn’t yet clicked, but when it does Liverpool have the most fearsome starting eleven in Europe.
Arne Slot is chasing his first Champions League crown, but Liverpool can still rely on the core of their 2019 winners in Alisson, Virgil van Dijk, Andy Robertson and Mohamed Salah.
Champions League knock-out fixtures often favour strong defences, but Liverpool will be relying upon pure attacking firepower.
